Forgetting your own fallibility

"The enemy we're fighting is a bit different than the one we war-gamed against."

That quote by Lt Gen William Wallace has been featured in most of the 'that was the week of war that was' round ups in the papers this weekend. However, as this article makes clear, that has a lot to do with the fact that the war games didn't actually allow the 'enemy' to fight like that, and when they tried to they were told that they were breaking the rules. The Army Times article it references is quite interesting as well.

This connects to another issue that I've seen mentioned a few times recently - the phenomenon of groupthink. While it sounds like a concept from Nineteen Eighty-Four, it's actually a concept from psychology referring to situations where 'do not consider all alternatives and they desire unanimity at the expense of quality decisions'. Now, I'm not a psychologist, but do any of these symptoms of groupthink (in bold) remind you of certain people's actions?

Having an illusion of invulnerability

Richard Perle: "Because it was basically over before anybody touched Iraqi soil, as a result of the air campaign. And our abilities today are by orders of magnitude better than they were then. We were primitive in 1991 by comparison to what we can do today." (interview with Josh Marshall)

Rationalizing poor decisions

An article in The New Yorker magazine also claims that Rumsfeld rejected advice that more troops would be needed to fight a war in Iraq. The magazine says Rumsfeld insisted at least six times that the proposed number of ground troops be reduced.

Rumsfeld denied those charges and defended the war plan, which he said was developed not by him, but by Gen. Tommy Franks. "It's a good one and it's working. I think the people who are talking about it really are people who haven't seen it." (CBS News)

Believing in the group's morality

George Bush: "In all these days of promise and days of reckoning, we can be confident. In a whirlwind of change and hope and peril, our faith is sure, our resolve is firm, and our union is strong." (State of the Union address)

Sharing stereotypes which guide the decision

Kenneth Adelman, Defense Policy Board member and personal friend of Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, has repeatedly declared that the coming war will be a "cakewalk." Richard Perle, Defense Policy Board Chairman, expresses no less confidence as he promises that Iraq will serve as the bridgehead for democracy across the Middle East. Curiously, the need for a war is so urgent because Iraq poses such an enormous threat, while at the same time the risks posed by going to war are so few because the Iraqi military is so weak. (from The War In Context)

Exercising direct pressure on others

As a Nato member, (Turkey) has been under intense pressure from Washington to allow US troops to use its bases as a platform to attack Iraq. (from BBC News)

Not expressing your true feelings

Claire Short: "I have decided to support the government in the vote today. Given my remarks last week, I believe I should explain my reasons. I know I will be heavily criticised for my decision and many people will feel I have let them down. (quote from BBC News)

Maintaining an illusion of unanimity

George Bush: "Every nation in this coalition has chosen to bear the duty and share the honour of serving in our common defence." (TV speech announcing the start of the war)

Using mindguards to protect the group from negative information

David Blunkett: "We have to back our troops....we have to back those who are in conflict in bringing down Saddam Hussein and we have to ask everyone to answer the question: 'who do you wish to win?'" (comments on Robin Cook, Breakfast With Frost)

And I found all those quotes in about half an hour of lazy searching with BBC News and Google. There's going to be a lot of source material for a psychological historian sometime down the line.