The General is in
With Wesley Clark having announced he's joining the race for the Democratic nomination for the US Presidency, I've been thinking about what effects his candidacy might have on the campaigns of the other nine candidates. This is all purely speculative, so please feel free to add your own opinions in the comments.
Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich and Carol Moseley-Braun: Clark's entry doesn't really have any effect on these campaigns. None of them were going to win before he entered the race, and none of them are going to win after he's entered the race. His presence in the race might slightly advance the date on which any of these withdraw, but they're all still likely to stay on for their fifteen minutes of New Hampshire fame anyway.
Bob Graham: Clark probably damages the Graham campaign, which has barely got off the ground anyway, because he and Graham are both strong on national security issues and Graham supporters may see this as the opportunity to jump onto a ship that might actually sail. I wouldn't be surprised to see Graham withdraw before the primaries begin, and perhaps endorse Clark, on the basis that he'd be quite a strong candidate for Clark's running-mate if he wins the nomination.
John Edwards: I have to admit that the Edwards campaign confuses me. He's still hardly making an impression in any polls, yet still seems to be able to raise large amounts of money. However, he's committed to the Presidential race, having announced that he won't be running for the Senate next year, and he may be gambling that his reserves of cash will allow him to stay in the race until the primaries reach the southern states and then make his move. Clark probably doesn't damage his chances too much right now, but the presence of another candidate in an already crowded field isn't good news for Edwards. Like Graham, though, he'd be another good candidate for Clark's running-mate and that might affect his strategy if Clark starts well.
Dick Gephardt: Of all the leading candidates, I think Clark affects Gephardt the least, and his entry into the race may even be a positive for Gephardt in that his effect on the other three leaders could knock them down enough to make Gephardt the seeming front-runner. His support seems quite stable, though probably not growing as fast he would like, but as his appeal is based on domestic issues and Congressional experience, he's not likely to lose much support to Clark.
John Kerry: Kerry's already having a poor campaign, getting trapped into a fight with Howard Dean over New Hampshire (a state that was initially perceived to be an easy victory for Kerry) and Clark's entry just adds to his troubles with Clark's military experience meaning Kerry is no longer the most high profile veteran in the race. Clark is likely to gain a number of voters from Kerry, though his entrance into the race might be the wake-up call the Kerry campaign has needed for months.
Joe Lieberman: In my opinion, Lieberman is probably the candidate most damaged by Clark joining the race. Much has been made of Lieberman's position as a 'New Democrat' and his links to the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) that helped Clinton's election so much, but the reports of Clark's candidacy make mention of how he's received much encouragement from the DLC and Bill Clinton which seems to me to indicate that the DLC have realised Lieberman is not going to win the nomination and they needed to find another candidate quickly. It's too early to tell if this is the case, but if the next round of fundraising declarations show a sudden drop for Lieberman and a large amount for Clark then it may indicate that big donors and the DLC are putting their money on the General. One of the reasons behind Clark's long wait to declare himself as a candidate may have been the desire to see if Lieberman's candidacy was going to get going.
Howard Dean: The conventional wisdom is that Clark's entry is bad news for Dean. The conventional wisdom was also that the Dean campaign would get nowhere and he had no chance of getting the nomination, so it's best to remember that Dean seems to have a way of confounding the conventional wisdom. However, Clark is going to take votes away from Dean, both for being a relative outsider and also for his antiwar in Iraq position. Dean's courting of Clark is also going to problematic for him, as it makes it hard for Dean to attack Clark without getting the response of 'well, why did you want his support if he's that bad?' By having become the front-runner so early, Dean has set himself up to be the first target for the Clark campaign and just stopping Dean's momentum at this point could weaken him quite badly. The Dean campaign has to switch from being the insurgent outsider challenging the leading candidates to being leader, defending itself against a new insurgent.
So, what do you think? Vaguely right, or entirely wrong? My gut feeling at this point is that the race is eventually going to come down to three candidates - Dean, Gephardt and Clark - but the whole thing is far too much up in the air right now to pick a winner from those three.
Update: Daily Kos' latest Cattle Call comes up with a similar analysis.
Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich and Carol Moseley-Braun: Clark's entry doesn't really have any effect on these campaigns. None of them were going to win before he entered the race, and none of them are going to win after he's entered the race. His presence in the race might slightly advance the date on which any of these withdraw, but they're all still likely to stay on for their fifteen minutes of New Hampshire fame anyway.
Bob Graham: Clark probably damages the Graham campaign, which has barely got off the ground anyway, because he and Graham are both strong on national security issues and Graham supporters may see this as the opportunity to jump onto a ship that might actually sail. I wouldn't be surprised to see Graham withdraw before the primaries begin, and perhaps endorse Clark, on the basis that he'd be quite a strong candidate for Clark's running-mate if he wins the nomination.
John Edwards: I have to admit that the Edwards campaign confuses me. He's still hardly making an impression in any polls, yet still seems to be able to raise large amounts of money. However, he's committed to the Presidential race, having announced that he won't be running for the Senate next year, and he may be gambling that his reserves of cash will allow him to stay in the race until the primaries reach the southern states and then make his move. Clark probably doesn't damage his chances too much right now, but the presence of another candidate in an already crowded field isn't good news for Edwards. Like Graham, though, he'd be another good candidate for Clark's running-mate and that might affect his strategy if Clark starts well.
Dick Gephardt: Of all the leading candidates, I think Clark affects Gephardt the least, and his entry into the race may even be a positive for Gephardt in that his effect on the other three leaders could knock them down enough to make Gephardt the seeming front-runner. His support seems quite stable, though probably not growing as fast he would like, but as his appeal is based on domestic issues and Congressional experience, he's not likely to lose much support to Clark.
John Kerry: Kerry's already having a poor campaign, getting trapped into a fight with Howard Dean over New Hampshire (a state that was initially perceived to be an easy victory for Kerry) and Clark's entry just adds to his troubles with Clark's military experience meaning Kerry is no longer the most high profile veteran in the race. Clark is likely to gain a number of voters from Kerry, though his entrance into the race might be the wake-up call the Kerry campaign has needed for months.
Joe Lieberman: In my opinion, Lieberman is probably the candidate most damaged by Clark joining the race. Much has been made of Lieberman's position as a 'New Democrat' and his links to the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) that helped Clinton's election so much, but the reports of Clark's candidacy make mention of how he's received much encouragement from the DLC and Bill Clinton which seems to me to indicate that the DLC have realised Lieberman is not going to win the nomination and they needed to find another candidate quickly. It's too early to tell if this is the case, but if the next round of fundraising declarations show a sudden drop for Lieberman and a large amount for Clark then it may indicate that big donors and the DLC are putting their money on the General. One of the reasons behind Clark's long wait to declare himself as a candidate may have been the desire to see if Lieberman's candidacy was going to get going.
Howard Dean: The conventional wisdom is that Clark's entry is bad news for Dean. The conventional wisdom was also that the Dean campaign would get nowhere and he had no chance of getting the nomination, so it's best to remember that Dean seems to have a way of confounding the conventional wisdom. However, Clark is going to take votes away from Dean, both for being a relative outsider and also for his antiwar in Iraq position. Dean's courting of Clark is also going to problematic for him, as it makes it hard for Dean to attack Clark without getting the response of 'well, why did you want his support if he's that bad?' By having become the front-runner so early, Dean has set himself up to be the first target for the Clark campaign and just stopping Dean's momentum at this point could weaken him quite badly. The Dean campaign has to switch from being the insurgent outsider challenging the leading candidates to being leader, defending itself against a new insurgent.
So, what do you think? Vaguely right, or entirely wrong? My gut feeling at this point is that the race is eventually going to come down to three candidates - Dean, Gephardt and Clark - but the whole thing is far too much up in the air right now to pick a winner from those three.
Update: Daily Kos' latest Cattle Call comes up with a similar analysis.
Nick got away with this at 6:09 PM
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