The bookies never lose
Chris Brooke rained on the parade of my earlier post about the Rugby World Cup by pointing out that the bookies actually have the All Blacks as favourites, not England. As I was at work, I couldn't check to see if he was right, as bookies' sites are blocked there, so I've just done a quick look round to see if he's right and, while I was at it, a quick alternate polling watch to see what the current odds are for the next General Election.
William Hill have New Zealand at 5/4, England at 6/4, Australia at 5/1, France at 12/1 and South Africa at 25/1. To win most seats at the General Election they have Labour at 2/7, Conservatives at 5/2 and Liberal Democrats at 40/1
Ladbrokes offer New Zealand at 6/5, England at 6/4, Australia at 5/1, France at 10/1 and South Africa at 20/1. For the General Election, they offer Labour at 2/9, Conservatives at 3/1 and Liberal Democrats at 50/1. You can also get 500/1 on John Major and 25/1 on William Hague being the next leader of the Tories.
IG Sport offer spreads, rather than odds, but their World Cup market (60pts for winning, 40pts for runners up, 20 for losing semi-finalists, 10 for losing quarter finalists) do make England the favourite with a spread of 40-43 points, New Zealand are at 37-40, Australia at 27-30, France at 19-22 and South Africa at 12-15. Their General Election spreads rate Labour at 338-348 seats, the Tories at 212-222 seats, and the Liberal Democrats at 69-74 seats.
So, Chris was right - just - but all the bookies seem to rate England and the All Blacks as being quite far ahead of the rest of the field. The odds will obviously fluctuate over the course of the tournament, but I would suspect that there might be a large realignment after England's group game against South Africa. A win there means England are unlikely to meet the All Blacks until the final (unless they lose to Wales in their group) while a loss means the two are likely to meet in the quarter-finals. Given that they're hosting the tournament and will no doubt be looking for revenge over England and New Zealand for recent defeats, I'd have to say the odds on Australia aren't too bad.
William Hill have New Zealand at 5/4, England at 6/4, Australia at 5/1, France at 12/1 and South Africa at 25/1. To win most seats at the General Election they have Labour at 2/7, Conservatives at 5/2 and Liberal Democrats at 40/1
Ladbrokes offer New Zealand at 6/5, England at 6/4, Australia at 5/1, France at 10/1 and South Africa at 20/1. For the General Election, they offer Labour at 2/9, Conservatives at 3/1 and Liberal Democrats at 50/1. You can also get 500/1 on John Major and 25/1 on William Hague being the next leader of the Tories.
IG Sport offer spreads, rather than odds, but their World Cup market (60pts for winning, 40pts for runners up, 20 for losing semi-finalists, 10 for losing quarter finalists) do make England the favourite with a spread of 40-43 points, New Zealand are at 37-40, Australia at 27-30, France at 19-22 and South Africa at 12-15. Their General Election spreads rate Labour at 338-348 seats, the Tories at 212-222 seats, and the Liberal Democrats at 69-74 seats.
So, Chris was right - just - but all the bookies seem to rate England and the All Blacks as being quite far ahead of the rest of the field. The odds will obviously fluctuate over the course of the tournament, but I would suspect that there might be a large realignment after England's group game against South Africa. A win there means England are unlikely to meet the All Blacks until the final (unless they lose to Wales in their group) while a loss means the two are likely to meet in the quarter-finals. Given that they're hosting the tournament and will no doubt be looking for revenge over England and New Zealand for recent defeats, I'd have to say the odds on Australia aren't too bad.
Nick got away with this at 1:14 AM
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