Time for the General
I haven't written about American politics much recently, but with the Democratic primaries starting in a week or so, it seems an appropriate time to issue my hostage to fortune and predict who I think is going to be the Democratic nominee for President.
I think it's going to be Wesley Clark. Now, this goes against the prevailing trend of opinion which holds that Howard Dean has it all wrapped up, but I'll explain my reasoning.
Firstly, I think that while Dean appears to have quite a strong lead in the polls, his support seems to have peaked, or is reaching a peak. He's got a lot of supporters, but doesn't seem to be adding new support at a significant rate. Clark, however, still seems to be on the rise. His campaign stuttered at the start when he launched it in September, and there were some times when it seemed like it might fizzle out. However, I think that's now over and Clark seems to be growing steadily - looking at the tracking polls in New Hampshire (as regularly reported by Atrios and Kos), he's moved up into second place there and national polls show him in a strong second place, rapidly closing the gap on Dean. For most of 2003, Dean was the outsider candidate with momentum, but now he's the frontrunner, facing attacks from all the other candidates.
Secondly, the tendency in American elections is for primaries to become a one on one battle and from my perspective, Clark seems the most likely candidate to become the anti-Dean because of his momentum. As other candidates drop out, I think he's the most likely to receive their endorsement - I've already seen rumours that he's looking to get the endorsement of Bob Graham, the first candidate to drop out - and if/when Edwards, Kerry, Lieberman and Gephardt withdraw, I would think that they'd be much more likely to back Clark than Dean. There's also the prospect of Clark being endorsed by the Clintons, of course.
Thirdly, Clark's campaign seems to be able to match Dean's for fundraising prowess, which means that he'll be able to fight in a lot of primaries where the other non-Dean candidates seem to be struggling for funds.
Finally, there's the issue of expectations. With Dean now locked in place as the easy frontrunner, he's going to be expected to win primaries, and win them well. Clark, as the outsider, doesn't have to win the initial primaries (he's not even campaigning in Iowa) and only has to show well in them to make the case that he's the only candidate who can challenge Dean. In New Hampshire, for instance, a second place for Clark is perphaps a better result for him than a win is for Dean. A Dean victory in New Hampshire has been expected for months, so is discounted in advance. However, if Clark comes second (and beats Kerry, who was expected to be strong in NH, into third place) he'll be seen as the candidate who's got 'the Big Mo' and can go on to win.
The way I see it going is that Dean will seem to be in a strong position after the first couple of primaries, but after that Clark's going to close the gap, especially as other candidates drop out and back him and it'll come down to a big clash between the two, probably on Super Tuesday. It could be quite a long fight, but I think Clark will eventually pull clear and get the nomination...and I'm not making any predictions as to what happens after that yet.
I think it's going to be Wesley Clark. Now, this goes against the prevailing trend of opinion which holds that Howard Dean has it all wrapped up, but I'll explain my reasoning.
Firstly, I think that while Dean appears to have quite a strong lead in the polls, his support seems to have peaked, or is reaching a peak. He's got a lot of supporters, but doesn't seem to be adding new support at a significant rate. Clark, however, still seems to be on the rise. His campaign stuttered at the start when he launched it in September, and there were some times when it seemed like it might fizzle out. However, I think that's now over and Clark seems to be growing steadily - looking at the tracking polls in New Hampshire (as regularly reported by Atrios and Kos), he's moved up into second place there and national polls show him in a strong second place, rapidly closing the gap on Dean. For most of 2003, Dean was the outsider candidate with momentum, but now he's the frontrunner, facing attacks from all the other candidates.
Secondly, the tendency in American elections is for primaries to become a one on one battle and from my perspective, Clark seems the most likely candidate to become the anti-Dean because of his momentum. As other candidates drop out, I think he's the most likely to receive their endorsement - I've already seen rumours that he's looking to get the endorsement of Bob Graham, the first candidate to drop out - and if/when Edwards, Kerry, Lieberman and Gephardt withdraw, I would think that they'd be much more likely to back Clark than Dean. There's also the prospect of Clark being endorsed by the Clintons, of course.
Thirdly, Clark's campaign seems to be able to match Dean's for fundraising prowess, which means that he'll be able to fight in a lot of primaries where the other non-Dean candidates seem to be struggling for funds.
Finally, there's the issue of expectations. With Dean now locked in place as the easy frontrunner, he's going to be expected to win primaries, and win them well. Clark, as the outsider, doesn't have to win the initial primaries (he's not even campaigning in Iowa) and only has to show well in them to make the case that he's the only candidate who can challenge Dean. In New Hampshire, for instance, a second place for Clark is perphaps a better result for him than a win is for Dean. A Dean victory in New Hampshire has been expected for months, so is discounted in advance. However, if Clark comes second (and beats Kerry, who was expected to be strong in NH, into third place) he'll be seen as the candidate who's got 'the Big Mo' and can go on to win.
The way I see it going is that Dean will seem to be in a strong position after the first couple of primaries, but after that Clark's going to close the gap, especially as other candidates drop out and back him and it'll come down to a big clash between the two, probably on Super Tuesday. It could be quite a long fight, but I think Clark will eventually pull clear and get the nomination...and I'm not making any predictions as to what happens after that yet.
Nick got away with this at 5:27 PM
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