About last night
First, results from last night's primaries are here and (for Simon) there's an overall delegate scorecard available here. Kerry now has a lead among delegates, with more than twice as many as Dean, who's ahead of Edwards and Clark.
It was a good night for Kerry, quite good for Clark and Edwards and not that good for Dean. Kerry won 5 and picked up 2nd and 3rd in the other two, Edwards and Clark both showed they can win states in South Carolina and Oklahoma, respectively and Dean did pretty poorly across the board, though he managed to pick up a few delegates in New Mexico and Arizona. At this point, it's still a contest against expectations as much as the other candidates with candidates seeking to show that they're still viable and capable of conducting a challenge. Despite some frantic lowering of expectations from the Dean campaign over the last week, they probably did the worst - even though they were publically not expecting a win, they were hoping to get over the 15% viability threshold in a few places to pick up delegates and that didn't happen for them. A very poor fifth place in South Carolina, the first real Southern primary, is not a good harbinger of success in the rest of the South.
Edwards has again shown that he can get very strong late surges in states which to me indicates that the more people see of him, the more they like him. He ran Clark to the wire in Oklahoma, saw off a strong challenge from Kerry in South Carolina and got a solid second in Missouri, where he did very little campaigning. He's perhaps the inverse of Dean, who voters seem to be tiring of the more they see of him - he's dropped off from high early support in almost all the states he's contested and some reports I read indicated that his showings in Arizona and New Mexico include a lot of absentee ballots (perhaps 50% of his total in New Mexico) cast two or three weeks ago, before Iowa and New Hampshire punctured the Dean bubble. Clark had the kind of showing Dean would have been happier with, picking up a few second and third places and delegates as well as the all-important first state victory meaning, of course, that Dean is now the only candidate not to have won anywhere.
The next week of primaries could be the start of the winnowing process that may lead to there being just two candidates left by Super Tuesday at the start of March. Though it has to be said that rumours of campiagn death are often exaggerated this year and all four could pick up enough good news to keep them going throughout this month. The five states that vote - Michigan, Washington and Maine at the weekend, then Virginia and Tennessee on Tuesday - do look as though they're splitting into two distinct contests. Kerry takes on Dean in the North at the weekend, then Clark faces Edwards in the South on Tuesday. Dean has to get a win this weekend - it seems both Clark and Edwards are saving their fire for Tuesday, so he has to show he can beat Kerry in a head-to-head contest. A failure this weekend would probably mean that the 'Anyone But Kerry' camp would switch to either Clark or Edwards as the man to stop him.
With the withdrawal of Lieberman, Clark and Edwards are left to fight for the mantle of the leading centrist/DLC/Clinton Democrat candidate and to show that they can appeal to the south. Kerry, especially if he gets a bounce from a good weekend, will probably be campaigning in Virginia and Tennessee, but he'll be looking for strong third places while the other two battle it out for the victories. If one of them picks up both, then it's probably game over for the other. Of course, if Kerry picks up one or both, then it might well be game over for both of them.
In short, Kerry's looking for two or three wins at the weekend and a strong showing on Tuesday, Dean needs at least one win (and preferably the more delegate-rich Michigan or Washington, rather than Maine) and not to do too badly on Tuesday. Clark and Edwards will be hoping to pick up a couple of good third places at the weekend, then see off the other on Tuesday.
And after that, whoever's still in the race gets to go on to fight in DC, Nevada, Wisconsin, Utah, Idaho and Hawaii. I wonder if any of the candidates have incentive schemes for their campaign staff - whoever does the best work over the next week gets to go and work in Las Vegas or Honolulu, while the ones who've done worst end up in Salt Lake City and Boise?
It was a good night for Kerry, quite good for Clark and Edwards and not that good for Dean. Kerry won 5 and picked up 2nd and 3rd in the other two, Edwards and Clark both showed they can win states in South Carolina and Oklahoma, respectively and Dean did pretty poorly across the board, though he managed to pick up a few delegates in New Mexico and Arizona. At this point, it's still a contest against expectations as much as the other candidates with candidates seeking to show that they're still viable and capable of conducting a challenge. Despite some frantic lowering of expectations from the Dean campaign over the last week, they probably did the worst - even though they were publically not expecting a win, they were hoping to get over the 15% viability threshold in a few places to pick up delegates and that didn't happen for them. A very poor fifth place in South Carolina, the first real Southern primary, is not a good harbinger of success in the rest of the South.
Edwards has again shown that he can get very strong late surges in states which to me indicates that the more people see of him, the more they like him. He ran Clark to the wire in Oklahoma, saw off a strong challenge from Kerry in South Carolina and got a solid second in Missouri, where he did very little campaigning. He's perhaps the inverse of Dean, who voters seem to be tiring of the more they see of him - he's dropped off from high early support in almost all the states he's contested and some reports I read indicated that his showings in Arizona and New Mexico include a lot of absentee ballots (perhaps 50% of his total in New Mexico) cast two or three weeks ago, before Iowa and New Hampshire punctured the Dean bubble. Clark had the kind of showing Dean would have been happier with, picking up a few second and third places and delegates as well as the all-important first state victory meaning, of course, that Dean is now the only candidate not to have won anywhere.
The next week of primaries could be the start of the winnowing process that may lead to there being just two candidates left by Super Tuesday at the start of March. Though it has to be said that rumours of campiagn death are often exaggerated this year and all four could pick up enough good news to keep them going throughout this month. The five states that vote - Michigan, Washington and Maine at the weekend, then Virginia and Tennessee on Tuesday - do look as though they're splitting into two distinct contests. Kerry takes on Dean in the North at the weekend, then Clark faces Edwards in the South on Tuesday. Dean has to get a win this weekend - it seems both Clark and Edwards are saving their fire for Tuesday, so he has to show he can beat Kerry in a head-to-head contest. A failure this weekend would probably mean that the 'Anyone But Kerry' camp would switch to either Clark or Edwards as the man to stop him.
With the withdrawal of Lieberman, Clark and Edwards are left to fight for the mantle of the leading centrist/DLC/Clinton Democrat candidate and to show that they can appeal to the south. Kerry, especially if he gets a bounce from a good weekend, will probably be campaigning in Virginia and Tennessee, but he'll be looking for strong third places while the other two battle it out for the victories. If one of them picks up both, then it's probably game over for the other. Of course, if Kerry picks up one or both, then it might well be game over for both of them.
In short, Kerry's looking for two or three wins at the weekend and a strong showing on Tuesday, Dean needs at least one win (and preferably the more delegate-rich Michigan or Washington, rather than Maine) and not to do too badly on Tuesday. Clark and Edwards will be hoping to pick up a couple of good third places at the weekend, then see off the other on Tuesday.
And after that, whoever's still in the race gets to go on to fight in DC, Nevada, Wisconsin, Utah, Idaho and Hawaii. I wonder if any of the candidates have incentive schemes for their campaign staff - whoever does the best work over the next week gets to go and work in Las Vegas or Honolulu, while the ones who've done worst end up in Salt Lake City and Boise?
Nick got away with this at 5:11 PM
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