And then there were three

So, Wesley Clark has withdrawn from the race for the Democrat nomination. I think The Poor Man gets it about right in his analysis:

As far as a post-mortem: not bad, for a rookie. You're supposed to say that something was horribly wrong with every campaign which loses, but I don't think that it's really true. I think, in the end, people just went for the know quantity of John Kerry, rather than the less thoroughly tested Clark, or Dean, or Edwards. Losing to John Kerry isn't like getting dumped for the sweatiest loser in the school - he's a serious guy, no shame in that at all.

He also points out that it's hard to work out where Clark's voters will go now - if one assumes they were voting for him because he was Southern, they'll go to Edwards, if it was because he was an outsider or his anti-war position, they'll go to Dean, or if it was because he was a veteran, they'll go to Kerry.

Actually, I say there are three candidates left, but that could well be two as Dean may withdraw if he fails to win Wisconsin (which seems likely, as he was fourth in the last poll I saw) which leaves a Kerry vs Edwards race. Though questions about whether Edwards is now bidding for the Vice-Presidency mean that some reporters will be eager to call the race over.

I think that Edwards does still think he can win - though he knows that he's in a strong position to be on the ticket, which would be a nice consolation prize - though he probably has only a slim chance of stopping the Kerry juggernaut right now. However, if I was advising the Edwards campaign (hey, you never know who might be reading) I'd suggest leaving Wisconsin for the next few days and heading to Las Vegas. Not to gamble his remaining campaign funds, but because Nevada has its primary on Saturday. Dean and Kerry are both currently concentrating on Wisconsin and while Edwards can campaign there, he's likely to get squeezed out of the media coverage concentrating on 'Dean's last stand?'. Instead, if he goes to Nevada, neither of the others are campaigning there (indeed, I read - but now can't find where - Kerry is taking a couple of days off from campaign events to fundraise) and it would give him the chance to get another state win, and one outside of his Southern base. It only has 24 delegates, but winning it would show that he's still a viable candidate and the bounce from there would keep him going to Super Tuesday.

Finally, as an addendum to the Edwards-as-VP discussion I was going to mention one possible outside contender for the spot - Congressman Harold Ford of Tennessee. As a young, black, centrist Southerner, he'd add a lot to Kerry's campaign, presuming he's the nominee, but unfortunately his youth is a terminal disadvantage this time round. As he doesn't turn 35 until May 2005, he's ineligible for the Vice-Presidency. Instead, my dark horse candidate for the slot will have to be Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry, though I suspect he, like Ford, is more likely to be a candidate for the ticket in 2008 (assuming the Democrats lose in November, and he's re-elected in 2006, of course).