Beatable?

Anatole Kaletsky identifies four reasons why he believes Bush is defeatable by the Democrats in November and questions some conventional wisdom:

Given that almost all political experts, not only in Washington and Wall Street, but also in London, Brussels, Tokyo, Moscow, Beijing and the Middle East, still seem to take a Bush re-election for granted, the global implications of what has happened in the past few weeks could be immense. Yet, as I found last month in Davos, the global political and business elites did not seem even to recognise the possibility of US regime change.

Quite why the global chattering classes have been so unanimous in assuming Bush’s re-election has always been a bit of a mystery, at least to me. As is often the case with conventional wisdom, the belief in a Bush victory seemed to owe far more to simple repetition than to logic or evidence.