Wednesday, February 25, 2004

More on gay marriage

Kos points out that the proposed amendment is going to have a tough job even passing the first hurdle - 2/3rds majorities in House and Senate:
But Congress is a whole different matter. The House, that bastion of hard-core conservatism, is a poor bet for the amendment. Why? Because of gerrymandering. Most incumbents are so safe that there is little electoral blowback to voting against such an amendment. In fact, with 205 Democrats (and Bernie Sanders), the Dems could suffer 60 defections and still defeat the amendment. And that doesn't include the handful of Republicans that would also vote "no" (like libertarian Ron Paul).

Meanwhile, the Senate is even a bigger doubt, where Republicans would have to pick up 15 Dems and suffer no defections to pass the amendment. And again, that wouldn't take into account "moderate" Republicans who would likely oppose the amendment (like Chaffee).

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