Does the News of the World have a Lib Dem bias?
No, I don't seriously think that, but it's interesting that it was a poll for the NotW last year that gave the highest Liberal Democrat figure (31%, in a three-way tie) for several years and a new Populus poll in today's paper (as reported by Labour Watch) gives Labour 30% (-3), Conservatives 28% (-1), Lib Dems 28% (+4) and others 14% (no change). The figures in brackets are the difference from Populus' previous poll for the Times earlier this month. It does bring up some rather different figures from the two result calculators, probably because the Lib Dem and Other figures are a bit out of the scope of Martin Baxter's calculator - that gives Labour 323 seats, Conservatives 147, Lib Dems 144. Anthony's swing calculator on the other hand gives Labour 346, Conservatives 175 and Lib Dems 92. (Update: Apologies, forgot to modify the figures to account for the larger 'Others' share as Martin suggests - that does give similar figures to Anthony - approximately 349, 174, and 92, if I got my maths right)
It's interesting to note that Populus are now giving a limited breakdown of the 'Others' vote (as are the ICM/Guardian) though the problem is that when you're dealing with single-figure percentages the margin of error in these polls becomes much more apparent. ICM's 10% of others gave 3% each to UKIP, Greens and SNP/Plaid Cymru and 1% for all other parties, while Populus previous Times poll (and remember, the 14% total is the same in the NotW poll) gives UKIP 6%, Greens 2%, SNP 2%, Plaid Cymru 1%, BNP 2% and all others 1%.
The question now, of course, is what effect votes for the other parties will have - is that 14% being drawn evenly from all three main parties or is it affecting one party more than the others? Plus, how evenly is it spread out across the country? I expect we'll have to wait until the next General Election to see the full picture, which at least means it'll be much more fun than the Beckettian (Samuel, not Margaret) spectacle of last time - a lot of words, but not much actually happening.
It's interesting to note that Populus are now giving a limited breakdown of the 'Others' vote (as are the ICM/Guardian) though the problem is that when you're dealing with single-figure percentages the margin of error in these polls becomes much more apparent. ICM's 10% of others gave 3% each to UKIP, Greens and SNP/Plaid Cymru and 1% for all other parties, while Populus previous Times poll (and remember, the 14% total is the same in the NotW poll) gives UKIP 6%, Greens 2%, SNP 2%, Plaid Cymru 1%, BNP 2% and all others 1%.
The question now, of course, is what effect votes for the other parties will have - is that 14% being drawn evenly from all three main parties or is it affecting one party more than the others? Plus, how evenly is it spread out across the country? I expect we'll have to wait until the next General Election to see the full picture, which at least means it'll be much more fun than the Beckettian (Samuel, not Margaret) spectacle of last time - a lot of words, but not much actually happening.
Nick got away with this at 6:49 AM
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