Early indications

John Curtice's report on how Labour could lose seats to the Tories even without the Tories gaining votes as the result of a Labour-to-Liberal Democrat swing surprisingly isn't put next to a detailed report of how and where the sun rose this morning, but it's on a similar level of interest. That the phenomenon would occur (a party losing seats when its share of the vote drops while its rivals either stay the same or gain votes) wasn't in doubt, but it's of some interest to see what would actually happen.

Still, Swiss Toni gives us an early idea of next year's Labour campaign to attract Liberal Democrat voters. As you'd expect, it's going to be based on a policy platform that appeals to liberal voters, allaying their concerns about Labour's recent drift to authoritarianism while also maintaining their commitment to social liberalism. What's that? You say it's going to be based on fear and a 'vote Lib Dem get the Tories' message? I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you:

Peter Hain, the Leader of the Commons, said the study showed the dangers of Labour supporters "having a punt on the Liberal Democrats in the mistaken belief that the election will be a cakewalk for us.They would be horrified if they voted to give us a bloody nose but actually elected a Tory MP and possibly even handed Michael Howard a back-door key to Number 10. In key Labour-Tory marginals, this shows that a Labour vote for the Liberal Democrats lets the Tories in."