» 2013 » February » 4 ¦ What You Can Get Away With

Chris Huhne did something that was wrong and stupid, and now he has to take the punishment for it. It’s a shame that a career that promised so much has to end this way, but if he’d taken the care to actually drive sensibly in the first place, he wouldn’t be in this position. As it is, error was then piled upon error, got mixed into a sea of malice, and we find ourselves where we are today. As someone who campaigned for him in two leadership elections, I’m obviously disappointed.

However, one thing I would note is that I’ve been told by several sources that the ‘if ballots delayed in the Christmas post had been counted, he’d have been leader and Deputy Prime Minister now’ story may well not be true. Some have told me that those ballots were never even looked at, let alone counted, and others have said that even those that were looked at may have leaned more towards Huhne than Clegg, they weren’t enough to actually win the election. Added to that, my years of talking about alternate histories and what-ifs show the knock-on effects of a Huhne leadership would make the situation now very different.

Today, though, we’re not going down the path of what-iffery, but the neighbouring line of what-mightery instead. What might happen at the Eastleigh by-election that Huhne’s resignation now triggers? I’m going to stick my head out here and say that if the party gets the candidate selection right, then it will be a Lib Dem hold. There are several reasons for this:

First, Eastleigh is a Lib Dem stronghold in local elections – out of 44 seats on the local council, the Lib Dems hold 40, the Tories 4. From what I am told, there’s a strong local campaigning and activist network, and several high-profile people locally besides Chris Huhne. I would expect one of them to be the candidate.

Second, the Tories are the nominal challengers from the last general election, but their national poll ratings have also dropped since then, and in a high-profile by-election like this, they’ll be very vulnerable to the UKIP factor, especially if Nigel Farage is the UKIP candidate. They don’t appear to have a big local base to rely on, and what motivation is there for a Tory voter to campaign to replace one coalition MP with another?

Third, Labour should benefit from being the main opposition in a by-election, but I think they’re starting from too far back. They had just 9.6% of the vote in 2010, in a constituency where they only got around 27% in the 1994 by-election and 1997 anyway, and in my opinion they’re starting from just too far back. It would need a swing of over 20% to even put them in contention (and that would require UKIP stealing a lot of the Tory vote too) and while such swings were common in the mid-90s by-elections, they’re not being made at the moment. (At least, not by the major parties)

As my recent series of retro-post has shown, my track record of predictions has not been too accurate, but I think I’ve set out a decent argument as to why this could well be a Lib Dem hold. That’s not to say that events could get in the way and derail it – poor campaigning, bad candidate selection, a senior Lib Dem doing something even more stupid than usual – but as things stand, I think a Lib Dem hold is the most likely outcome.

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Following some of the links from the Lib Dem Voice Golden Dozen, I found this post by Richard Morris suggesting names for potential new Lib Dem members of the House of Lords.

As I’ve stated many times before, I’d like to see the House of Lords replaced with an elected chamber – it’s the 21st century, I think we’re in a position where the British people should elect their own Parliament – but as reactionaries and opportunists in other parties happily conspire to prevent that from happening, we remain with a house of patronage. As a result, it looks like Nick Clegg will get to name fifteen people to the Lords (and for this post, I’m not going to open up the can of worms that’s the party’s Interim Peers Panel)

However, I noticed something in Richard’s post that of the 14 potential new peers he suggests, only three are women. This isn’t to single out Richard – I’m sure most Lib Dems when asked to come up with a similar list would come up with a similarly male list of the great, good, worthy and safely uncontroversial – but if there’s one thing the benches in the Lords aren’t short of at the moment, it’s men. Looking at the list of peers on the party website, there are 94 Lib Dem peers, of whom 66 are men and 28 are women (those figures do include Jenny Tonge). In terms of representing women, that’s slightly better than Have I Got News For You, but still pretty poor when compared to reality.

Assuming that Clegg doesn’t take the attitude that the best way to win the game of House of Lords appointments is to not play and appoint no new peers, why not take a bold approach and announce a list of fifteen women? It would still leave the party’s representation in the Lords well short of equality – but another list of fifteen would bring that close – but it would be a statement that if we do have to have an unelected chamber, the party is committed to making it representative. I could quite easily come up with a list of fifteen Lib Dem women who’d all make very good peers, so surely it’s not beyond the ability of Nick Clegg and his advisers to come up with one?

Doing that would be a way of making the statement that the Liberal Democrats are still committed to doing politics differently, and I expect it would serve as a way of making us look very different from the sort of list that Cameron and Miliband are likely to propose for their parties. And for anyone complaining about positive discrimination, it’s quite clear from the list of existing Lib Dem peers that there’s clearly been discrimination in favour of men over the years, and this is a chance to show that we’re not going to keep doing things the way they’ve always been done.

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Not done this for a while

You may – if you’re watching this website very closely – have noticed that a link to the EDL has appeared in the sidebar. This isn’t a shocking new development on my part, it’s just plugging the English Disco Lovers and helping people find them instead of other, less inclusive, EDLs.

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