Back in January, I explained why I wasn’t going to try and predict what happened politically in 2016 because things were just so chaotic as to make predictions pointless:
My only prediction is that all your predictions will be wrong.
Of course, my grounds for predicting that weren’t entirely right, ascribing unpredictability to just the EU referendum and Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour Party, and entirely failing to mention Donald Trump.
It feels like we’re now in a period where politics is incredibly febrile and chaotic and the sort of certainties we base our predictions on are washed away as soon as we seek to put any of our weight upon them. For instance, it’s entirely possible that by the end of 2017 Justin Trudeau could be the longest-serving national leader in the G7: Obama and Hollande are leaving office, Merkel faces a tricky election and Abe has lasted a lot longer in office than most Japanese Prime Ministers have managed.
Trying to predict the politics of 2017 in an atmosphere like this is pointless, there are just too many wildly fluctuating variables that can throw even the simplest and most obvious prediction way out of the realms of possibility. Besides, for all we know, this time next year we could be scraping through the ruins of a post-apocalyptic wasteland, far more concerned about surviving than wondering just who predicted the date and cause of the apocalypse most accurately (though for the sake of completeness: 19th August, and a viral tweet about the crispiness of bacon).
Aside from that, it’s another year of my only prediction being that all your predictions will be wrong. Though please do give me credit for predicting the Bacopocalypse when it comes.