Why Jeb Bush will win the 2016 Presidential election

Because history repeats itself, except for all the times it doesn’t.

Barack Obama’s re-election this week meant that three successive US Presidents (Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Obama) had all been elected to two terms in office. The only other time this has happened in American politics was 200 years ago, with the Presidencies of Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe.

The interesting thing about this is that in both of these sequences, the President who served immediately beforehand was a holder of the office for a single term (John Adams and George HW Bush), who’d previously been Vice-President for two terms (for George Washington and Ronald Reagan). In the Jefferson-Madison-Monroe sequence, the next President was a son of that former President who served for a single term: John Quincy Adams.

As perfect symmetry can’t be achieved unless someone finds a way for George W Bush to run again for the Presidency, the burden of history falls on the other politically-active son of George W Bush, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. To keep up with history, he should win a bitterly disputed election that ends up decided by the Congress, after the ruling party has split several ways. The winner of the popular vote and the most electoral votes (Andrew Jackson in 1824) will then swear revenge, get elected for two terms immediately afterwards and make radical changes to the way the political system of the country works.

Of course, the parallels break down when you look too closely, not least in how James Monroe’s period as President was known as ‘the era of good feelings’ with so little domestic strife that he was re-elected without serious opposition to his second term. When the historians write about this period of US history, I somehow doubt ‘good feelings’ will be used much. However, Jeb Bush is being mentioned as a potential Republican candidate next time round, so maybe history is preparing for the tragedy or the farce.


Nine years in nine posts

To go one better than Jonathan Calder, and as a reminder that this blog will be reaching its tenth anniversary next year. Here’s what I was writing about on or about the 16th May in previous years:

18th May, 2011: Maths, Hanningfield Style proved that Essex is not larger than Croatia.
16th May 2010: I was about to head to the Birmingham NEC for the Liberal Democrat Special Conference.
15th May 2009: Poem: In search of a gilded benefactor found me singing the ironic praises of Hazel Blears.
10th May 2008: Some fly, some sleep with the fishes as I find an amusing line in a BBC News report.
12th May 2007: Just a simple question about Eurovision generates a huge nine comments!
15th May 2006: Where the road leads reveals the route I’ll be taking on my walk from John O’Groats to Land’s End
14th May 2005: The sins of the father is my review of the Doctor Who episode ‘Father’s Day’.
16th May 2004: We’re back to a Blogger-produced site with Dude, where’s my taste? In which I thought the US had scraped the bottom of the reality TV barrel with a series in which two men pretended to be gay. Oh, such innocent times.
16th May 2003: It was so long ago, posts made with Blogger didn’t have titles. In this post, I talk about PR in European elections and some of the disingenuous arguments around it. Of course, if I’d done this exercise yesterday, I’d have linked to this post about London bidding for the Olympics to show how nothing’s really changed in nine years.

See you again for the next version of this exercise in 2021!


History with a finger on the fast forward button

Found via Nosemonkey, this time-lapse map of European history is rather good:

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Here’s an interesting bit of local history for you all, going all the way back to when I was born in 1972. This was a year of many interesting events, and also the 1972 Local Government Act which brought about wholesale changes to the way large parts of the country were governed. It brought in the two-tier system of local government (counties and districts/boroughs) that’s been continually tampered with since, and also carved many new counties out of the old borders. I grew up in Redditch, so was under the auspices of the county of ‘Hereford and Worcester’ for a while, though if things had gone slightly differently I could have known it as Malvernshire or the County of Wyvern.

But today, we’re not looking at H&W, Avon, Humberside or any of the odd agglomerations that were created then, but one that was proposed and never came about – Colchester becoming part of Suffolk.

Read the rest of this entry

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An Imperial Possession by David Mattingly (2011 book #27)

Not had much of a chance to read over the last few weeks, and when I have, my time’s been occupied by this rather detailed look at life in Britain during its time as part of the Roman Empire. The focus is a bit more archaeological than historical compared to my usual reading, but still had lots of interesting information about life during the period. Not one to read if you’re looking for a simple history of the period, but the wealth of detail does make it useful and interesting if you have the time.


The Inheritors by William Golding (2011 book #26)

Helping me keep up my average of a book a week this year, The Inheritors is Golding’s second novel (after Lord Of The Flies) and like that, it’s also a look at some of humanity’s darker impulses. Here, though, the focus is on humanity’s beginnings as seen from the viewpoint of a group of Neanderthals encountering this new type of people for the first time. Golding expertly creates a perspective that’s non-human but understandable as what’s effectively a tragedy unfolds through a mutual incomprehensibility and fear. Definitely a classic novel, and well-worth a look.

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But who will be eaten first?

The House of Lords by numbers – interesting data on how many Lords of different parties have been appointed in the last few years.
The Poisonous Drivel of Dr Denis MacShane MP – A Labour MP and the Daily Mail conspire in quoting something out of context to disparage the work of a feminist academic? Hands up anyone not surprised by this latest attempt to drag everyone down to the lowest common denominator. (via)
The People’s Pledge campaign: More lies, irrelevancies and distortions from the British EU referendum campaign – Luckily, Nosemonkey doesn’t get tired of pointing out all the times when people get things wrong about the EU. Contains more refutations of spurious factoids than you’ll find in most newspapers.
China used prisoners in lucrative internet gaming work – Welcome to the future. It’s written by Charles Stross, but just be glad they didn’t use that part of his work that features the Elder Gods.
Humor from historians – A fully peer-reviewed joke.

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