Now here’s something interesting in the data for the latest YouGov poll. Not the headline figures – Conservatives 33%, Labour 30%, Liberal Democrats 29% – but a question asking people whether they might change their vote.
63% said they’d pretty much made up their mind, while 31% said they might change their mind. Those 31% were then asked which party they might vote for if they changed their mind, and responded:
Liberal Democrat: 31%
Scottish National Party / Plaid Cymru: 2%
United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP): 9%
British National Party (BNP): 4%
Some other party: 2%
Would not vote: 9%
Don’t know: 15%
What that says to me is that not only have a lot of people have switched to the Liberal Democrats in the past few days, but that there are many other people (around 9% of the electorate, if I’m reading it right) who might come the same way in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, there’s a much smaller number of people who might switch to one of the other parties, and that suggests to me that the potential Liberal Democrat vote in this election is much higher than the potential Labour or Conservative vote – there’s a hell of a lot still to play for!
(original link via John Nor on Twitter)